Trace

近来几次开会时遇到意见不一致，我都或多或少的有着急上火，嗓门提高的表现。今天看《Taking Woodstock》里面的音乐会筹办人Michael Lang那种悠然自得，处变不惊的态度，让我意识到自己动则溢于言表的表现是很不专业的。有时候开会就像打Texas Hold'em, 最不动生色的那个才能出奇制胜，而沉不住气的那个，往往最先出局。

新项目获得批准以后的短暂乐观情绪，在过去的三个星期被各种意想不到的困境冲淡了。首先是原来做这个项目的主管对我们的项目百般阻挠，说好转到我们组的人又被截留一个月。然后被告知对外找聘的名额如果要招美国以外的人，必须VP批准。最后是原来已经谈好价钱的一个第三方软件供应商突然提价。加上感恩节假期，很多人都修长假，原来计划的项目日程，眼看就要成为镜花水月。

连我的牙医都说，你最近是不是有很大压力，你晚上磨牙。昨晚我一边琢磨着怎么对付这些难关，一边小心的张开嘴避免磨牙。早上五点就醒了，发现老板写了一封可能引起我的新组员误解的email，赶紧回复解释，同时安抚新组员。之后就再也没睡着，早早来到办公室，跟老板当面列出了现在面临的问题。谈过之后，才知道老板昨晚也没睡着。我们只好做最坏的打算，准备汇报项目延迟。

可是就在十分钟以前，一切奇迹般的好转了。VP批准了国际招聘的费用，HR开始安排国际面试。转组过来的人提前到位开始干活。第三方软件供应商同意降价。三封email同时飞至，一起告诉我，新项目又起死回生了。我不得不惊叹命运之神的幽默感。

如果你Google “the answer to life the universe and everything”， 你会发现一个匪夷所思的答案42。
这个典故来自于Douglas Adams的科幻讽刺小说The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy。

另一个数字谜题是巴塞罗那最著名的教堂SAGRADA FAMILIA 的大门上的一个矩阵，

 The Road Not Taken
 
 Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,   
And sorry I could not travel both   
And be one traveler, long I stood   
And looked down one as far as I could   
To where it bent in the undergrowth;
 
Then took the other, as just as fair,   
And having perhaps the better claim,   
Because it was grassy and wanted wear;   
Though as for that the passing there   
Had worn them really about the same,
 
And both that morning equally lay   
In leaves no step had trodden black.   
Oh, I kept the first for another day!   
Yet knowing how way leads on to way,   
I doubted if I should ever come back.
 
I shall be telling this with a sigh   
Somewhere ages and ages hence:   
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—   
I took the one less traveled by,   
And that has made all the difference.

---- Robert Frost 

Wednesday, Oct 28，2009
一名孩童从伦敦海德公园遍地的落叶上跑过，今年伦敦的秋天格外温暖。摄影师：Dan Kitwood
A child ran through fallen leaves in London’s Hyde Park Wednesday.

Wednesday，November 18，2009
一名男子跃入海中游泳，里约热内卢Arpoador海滩附近。摄影师：Felipe Dana
A man jumped into the sea from a beach in the neighborhood of Arpoador in Rio de Janeiro Wednesday.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009
一名男子在白沙瓦的Shabistan电影院观看电影《Zakham》，巴基斯坦。摄影师：Daniel Berekulak
A man watched the movie “Zakham” at the Shabistan Cinema in Peshawar, Pakistan, Tuesday.

Monday, November 16, 2009
一名女子在银杏树下拍摄秋天的落叶，东京。摄影师：Yuriko Nakao
A woman photographed the fall foliage of ginkgo biloba trees in Tokyo Monday.

 

Bathtub V from Keith Loutit on Vimeo.

An exec at a large European financial company recently told me his former CEO believed “Failure is not an option”. Great, I thought. This means they will do whatever it takes to succeed, try five or ten different approaches until it works, get the whole company focused on the goal, etc. No, he told me. What it means is “Make a mistake and you are fired.” Wow! Another example of the difference between startups and big companies. I have worked most of my career in startups where you are always pushing the envelope, taking big risks, where there are no obvious answers, and you just keep trying until you find the combination that works.

Startups play poker, big companies play chess – This “failure is not an option” discussion reminded me of the huge differences between startups and big companies. Success is not easy in either case, but the approaches are radically different. Using a game analogy, startups are more like poker players. They take big risks, they bluff, they make quick decisions, change direction constantly, and they keep their competitors off balance. Poker is an aggressive game where if you play your cards right you win big, and win fast. If you lose a hand you can come back and double your money in the next hand. There is no time to wallow over a loss. You did your best. Move on and your luck will be better next time. Chess is a different game. Both require incredible skill and talent. A great poker player is rarely a good chess player.

Big companies think long term. Like chess players they think four or five moves (years) ahead. They protect their assets, play defensively, think strategically, and carefully consider the options before making a move. Big companies have a lot to lose, while small companies don’t. Big companies leverage their assets (conservatively) and flex their muscles where they can. They go for incremental improvements in position. Big company CEOs, like chess players, work a long term strategy. Each short term move plays a part in a longer term strategy that is not visible to the casual observer. In fact, their strategy is often kept secret, and they take care to make sure their short term moves don’t reveal their long term plan. Strategy is a competitive advantage.

There is another interesting topic on how to make the transition from startup to successful big company, but we will save that for another day.

Fail Fast – If you are going to fail, do it fast and move on to the next thing. More in depth thoughts here. The only thing better than a "Yes" is a quick "NO". When you are raising money, selling a customer, or trying to get a deal done, it is the long drawn out process that never ends that will kill you. It is the same thing with startups. Being successful is always the goal, but if it is going to fail...Fail fast.

Bill Warner, founder of Avid Technologies, Wildfire Communications, etc, said recently “Some of you guys are so smart you turn what should have been a one year failure into a five year death march.” Entrepreneurs are resourceful, smart, and have that indomitable spirit that doesn’t allow them to quit. This can be good and bad. Sometimes it is better to “fold” and move on to the next game.

Hold ‘em or Fold ‘em? – “You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em, know when to walk away, know when to run.” Kenny Rogers. The toughest decision any entrepreneur makes is giving up on a company. It just isn’t in their DNA to do it. In fact, they rarely decide to do it, it is the investors who finally make the call. How do they decide? It is really about passion and commitment – from the founders, investors, employees, and customers. If the passion is lost in any two of the four groups…it is probably time to “fold” and move on.

Fine line between success and failure – There are no easy and obvious answers. If it were easy everyone would have already done it. Timing and luck play a big part in success…bigger than most people will admit. There are four key elements to success in any business; great people, great idea, great timing, and luck. If you don’t have any two of the four…you are probably going to fail. I have seen startups with great people and a great idea that were too early (timing), or had bad luck on things they couldn’t control. They failed. The same idea tried five years later succeeded. Timing matters. The market needs to be ready to adopt your ideas. The answer is never obvious. You don’t know for sure until you try.

今天是美国的万圣节，成年人在这一天会装扮成各种平日里不可想象的人和物件。小孩子则成群结队的去挨家挨户要糖果。

如果在两年前，全世界都会争相报道，甚至效仿。当美国还是一个富裕的冷战后的唯一超级大国时，全世界都会对试图模仿它的一切，包括政治体系和文化，无论是多么的匪夷所思。好莱坞电影，麦当劳快餐，星巴克咖啡和万圣节这样的文化符号，就是这样被输出到了世界的各个角落。

可是在今天，一个债台高筑，军事失败，国内改革陷入僵局，国际上影响力式微的的美国，随着它帝国光环的消退，它的文化似乎也失去了魅力。仿佛是为了应证这一点，今天美国股市全面下跌。

日本80年代的泡沫经济，把日本漫画和丰田管理模式推向了世界。东亚四小龙，成就了韩流和港台剧。这些曾经被奉为先进的时尚的文化，在各自的载体经济衰落以后，就失去了它们赖以支撑的受众。

也许有一天，万圣节这个充满奇怪仪式的日子，会成为人们遥远的记忆。